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Prediction for CME (2023-02-24T20:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-02-24T20:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/23915/-1
CME Note: Partial halo CME seen mostly to the NW in SOHO LASCO and STEREO A COR2A coronagraphs. The CME is associated with an M3.7-class flare and subsequent eruption from AR3229. The flare induces a large nearby filament channel to break and lift off seen best in SDO/GOES 304, but also in SDO 193 and GOES-16 195. The flare and CME are also associated with a small enhancement in 10 MeV protons observed at GOES. The likely arrival of this CME (possibly a glancing blow) is first seen at 2023-02-26T18:43Z in DSCOVR data as a rapid increase in magnetic field from 10 nT to near 20 nT as well as a simultaneous increase in solar wind speed from 470 km/s to 540 km/s and density from 10 to 20 particles/cc.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-02-26T18:43Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-02-26T18:00Z (-6.0h, +6.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 6.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2023-02-24T23:17Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 1323
Longitude (deg): W019
Latitude (deg): N29
Half-angular width (deg): 36

Notes: Filament eruption overlying AR3229 M3.7 flare 24/2030UTC, Type IV, 1204 Type II and 10cm radio bursts. Fast and clear concentric CME shocks seen NW of Sun-Earth line, fitted to innermost complete ring shock at 2154 C3 and 2153 COR2, then 9 total C3 points. Reasonable confidence in fit matching emission loc and Type II speed, little difference in FoV of St A and C3 main u/c. Arrives roughly coincident with CIR leading CH79/-. Deterministic Enlil run central in its ensemble, spread roughly +/-6h. Kp7 suggested.

Space weather advisor: Michael Lawrence

Lead Time: 38.48 hour(s)
Difference: 0.72 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2023-02-25T04:14Z

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