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Prediction for CME (2023-02-24T20:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-02-24T20:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL:
CME Note: Partial halo CME seen mostly to the NW in SOHO LASCO and STEREO A COR2A coronagraphs. The CME is associated with an M3.7-class flare and subsequent eruption from AR3229. The flare induces a large nearby filament channel to break and lift off seen best in SDO/GOES 304, but also in SDO 193 and GOES-16 195. The flare and CME are also associated with a small enhancement in 10 MeV protons observed at GOES. The likely arrival of this CME (possibly a glancing blow) is first seen at 2023-02-26T18:43Z in DSCOVR data as a rapid increase in magnetic field from 10 nT to near 20 nT as well as a simultaneous increase in solar wind speed from 470 km/s to 540 km/s and density from 10 to 20 particles/cc.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-02-26T18:43Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-02-26T14:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)
Prediction Method Note:
Enter predicted CME shock arrival time: 2023-02-26T14:00Z
(Optional) Confidence that the CME will arrive (percentage): 60%
(Optional) Kp Range Lower Limit: 5
(Optional) Kp Range Upper Limit: 7
Lead Time: 37.40 hour(s)
Difference: 4.72 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) on 2023-02-25T05:19Z
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