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Prediction for CME (2023-02-24T20:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-02-24T20:36Z
CME Note: Partial halo CME seen mostly to the NW in SOHO LASCO and STEREO A COR2A coronagraphs. The CME is associated with an M3.7-class flare and subsequent eruption from AR3229. The flare induces a large nearby filament channel to break and lift off seen best in SDO/GOES 304, but also in SDO 193 and GOES-16 195. The flare and CME are also associated with a small enhancement in 10 MeV protons observed at GOES. The likely arrival of this CME (possibly a glancing blow) is first seen at 2023-02-26T18:43Z in DSCOVR data as a rapid increase in magnetic field from 10 nT to near 20 nT as well as a simultaneous increase in solar wind speed from 470 km/s to 540 km/s and density from 10 to 20 particles/cc.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-02-26T18:43Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-02-27T23:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 70.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 25 Feb 2023 until 27 Feb 2023) SOLAR FLARES  : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM  : Moderate (ISES: Major) magstorm expected (A>=50 or K=6) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 25 Feb 2023  10CM FLUX: 160 / AP: 011 PREDICTIONS FOR 26 Feb 2023  10CM FLUX: 160 / AP: 039 PREDICTIONS FOR 27 Feb 2023  10CM FLUX: 160 / AP: 083
COMMENT: Solar flaring activity was moderate. Despite the decay observed in NOAA active region 3229 over the past days, it was the source of the strongest flare of the period: an M3.7 flare peaking at 20:30UTC, following new flux emergence ahead of the leading spot. Another M flare was observed from NOAA active region 3235, while NOAA active region 3234 only produced low C level flaring.
NOAA active region 3236 showed growth with now mixed polarities in the vicinity of the leading spot. Also the leading spot of NOAA active region
3234 grew and the region maintains the mixed polarity spots in the trailing area.
Flaring at M level is expected with also a potential for C class flaring.

The M3.7 flare came associated with radio bursts and filament eruption from the same location. A full halo CME was recorded associated to the event.
The CME is first visible in the C2 field of view starting 20:36UTC. It is mainly directed towards the northwest but has a full halo extent. Given the location of the source and the halo extent it is expected that the CME has an Earth directed component. Modelling runs indicate an arrival around February 26.
Lead Time: 28.93 hour(s)
Difference: -28.28 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M Office) on 2023-02-25T13:47Z
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