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Prediction for CME (2023-02-25T19:38:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-02-25T19:38Z
CME Note: Bright partial halo CME with a bulk portion predominantly to the West in STEREO A COR2 imagery. No SOHO imagery available during initial entry. Source is a filament eruption and simultaneous M6.3 flare from AR13229. An EUV wave is best seen in GOES/SUVI 284 starting at 2023-02-25T18:54Z. A post-eruptive arcade is present in most SDO/AIA wavelengths following the eruption. Likely CME arrival (shock and sheath) are seen at 2023-02-27T10:15Z, as jump in magnetic field to over 20 nT, accompanied by sharp drop in density and temperature. This signature is being discussed with LASSOS team.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-02-27T10:15Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-02-27T22:08Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 76.3333%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.375 - 6.875
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME
Lead Time: -31.50 hour(s)
Difference: -11.88 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2023-02-28T17:45Z
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