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Prediction for CME (2023-02-25T19:38:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-02-25T19:38Z
CME Note: Bright partial halo CME with a bulk portion predominantly to the West in STEREO A COR2 imagery. No SOHO imagery available during initial entry. Source is a filament eruption and simultaneous M6.3 flare from AR13229. An EUV wave is best seen in GOES/SUVI 284 starting at 2023-02-25T18:54Z. A post-eruptive arcade is present in most SDO/AIA wavelengths following the eruption. Likely CME arrival (shock and sheath) are seen at 2023-02-27T10:15Z, as jump in magnetic field to over 20 nT, accompanied by sharp drop in density and temperature. This signature is being discussed with LASSOS team.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-02-27T10:15Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-02-27T18:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 70.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
SoHO/LASCO coronagraph images show an asymmetric halo CME towards the west-
northwest appearing in the C2 field of view at 19:36UTC February 25. The
projected speed is around 1000km/s. The event is associated to the M6.3
flare, and an on disc dimming in SDO 193 images and filament eruption SDO
304 images. Given the source location on disc and the halo extent in
coronagraph images the CME is estimated to have an Earth directed component
and model runs indicate an estimated arrival around 18:00UTC February 27.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux became further enhanced after the M6.3
flare, crossing the 10pfu event threshold around 21:10UTC. The proton flux
is expected to remain above the event threshold over the next day before
starting to decay.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and
is expected to remain below this threshold over the next days. The 24h
electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to be at normal
levels over the next 24 hours.

An equatorial coronal hole of negative polarity that transited the central
meridian earlier is expected to add to the solar wind perturbations
starting late tomorrow February 27.

Solar wind speed increased gently reaching just over 500km/s by the end of
the period. The interplanetary magnetic field was enhanced reaching a
magnitude of 11nT. The northsouth component of the magnetic field was
variable with an extended period of southward orientation in the afternoon
of February 25 (Bz down to -8nT). The orientation of the magnetic field
showed a switch from the positive (field away from the Sun) to the negative
(field towards the Sun) sector around 7UTC this morning.
Solar wind conditions are expected to become perturbed with subsequently
the arrival late today of the February 24 CME then followed by a
combination of the arrival of the February 25 CME and the high speed stream
from the equatorial negative polarity coronal hole late tomorrow. Solar
wind speed is expected to reach over 600 km/s.
Lead Time: 21.35 hour(s)
Difference: -7.75 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) on 2023-02-26T12:54Z
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