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Prediction for CME (2023-02-24T20:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-02-24T20:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL:
CME Note: Partial halo CME seen mostly to the NW in SOHO LASCO and STEREO A COR2A coronagraphs. The CME is associated with an M3.7-class flare and subsequent eruption from AR3229. The flare induces a large nearby filament channel to break and lift off seen best in SDO/GOES 304, but also in SDO 193 and GOES-16 195. The flare and CME are also associated with a small enhancement in 10 MeV protons observed at GOES. The likely arrival of this CME (possibly a glancing blow) is first seen at 2023-02-26T18:43Z in DSCOVR data as a rapid increase in magnetic field from 10 nT to near 20 nT as well as a simultaneous increase in solar wind speed from 470 km/s to 540 km/s and density from 10 to 20 particles/cc.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-02-26T18:43Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-02-26T23:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 70.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
SoHO/LASCO coronagraph images show an asymmetric halo CME towards the west-
northwest appearing in the C2 field of view at 19:36UTC February 25. The
projected speed is around 1000km/s. The event is associated to the M6.3
flare, and an on disc dimming in SDO 193 images and filament eruption SDO
304 images. Given the source location on disc and the halo extent in
coronagraph images the CME is estimated to have an Earth directed component
and model runs indicate an estimated arrival around 18:00UTC February 27.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux became further enhanced after the M6.3
flare, crossing the 10pfu event threshold around 21:10UTC. The proton flux
is expected to remain above the event threshold over the next day before
starting to decay.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and
is expected to remain below this threshold over the next days. The 24h
electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to be at normal
levels over the next 24 hours.

An equatorial coronal hole of negative polarity that transited the central
meridian earlier is expected to add to the solar wind perturbations
starting late tomorrow February 27.

Solar wind speed increased gently reaching just over 500km/s by the end of
the period. The interplanetary magnetic field was enhanced reaching a
magnitude of 11nT. The northsouth component of the magnetic field was
variable with an extended period of southward orientation in the afternoon
of February 25 (Bz down to -8nT). The orientation of the magnetic field
showed a switch from the positive (field away from the Sun) to the negative
(field towards the Sun) sector around 7UTC this morning.
Solar wind conditions are expected to become perturbed with subsequently
the arrival late today of the February 24 CME then followed by a
combination of the arrival of the February 25 CME and the high speed stream
from the equatorial negative polarity coronal hole late tomorrow. Solar
wind speed is expected to reach over 600 km/s.
Lead Time: 5.78 hour(s)
Difference: -4.28 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) on 2023-02-26T12:56Z
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