CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-02-25T19:38:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-02-25T19:38ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/23942/-1
CME Note: Bright partial halo CME with a bulk portion predominantly to the West in STEREO A COR2 imagery. No SOHO imagery available during initial entry. Source is a filament eruption and simultaneous M6.3 flare from AR13229. An EUV wave is best seen in GOES/SUVI 284 starting at 2023-02-25T18:54Z. A post-eruptive arcade is present in most SDO/AIA wavelengths following the eruption. Likely CME arrival (shock and sheath) are seen at 2023-02-27T10:15Z, as jump in magnetic field to over 20 nT, accompanied by sharp drop in density and temperature. This signature is being discussed with LASSOS team.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-02-27T10:15Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-02-28T00:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)
Prediction Method Note:
Enter predicted CME shock arrival time in format : 2023-02-28T00:00Z Confidence that the CME will arrive (percentage): 60% Kp Range Lower Limit: 5 Kp Range Upper Limit: 7Lead Time: 9.53 hour(s)
Difference: -13.75 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) on 2023-02-27T00:43Z
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