Prediction for CME (2023-02-28T09:53:00-CME-001)CME Observed Time: 2023-02-28T09:53Z
CME Note: Very faint CME in the NW in both coronagraphs first seen after the end of the nighttime data gap in STEREO A COR2. The start is currently covered by the data gap in SOHO LASCO but it is also faintly seen in C3 after this gap. One possible (front-sided) source could be a relatively minor eruption seen after 2023-02-28T06:19Z in AIA 304, 171, 193. In SDO AIA 304 there is a bright flare, then dark material (possibly ejecta). Brightening then dimming of area seen in GOES SUVI 284. It could be associated with a C2.5 class flare from AR 3234 at the time (N20W30). However, this faint event could also be back sided (no coronal signatures found for this).
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-03-03T08:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:
https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/24010/1 Model Inputs: 2023-02-28T09:53:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=27.0, Lat.=3.0, Speed=438.0, HalfAngle=22.0, Time21.5=2023-02-28T17:29Z Model Output: Earth Impact: Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2023-03-03T08:00Z (+- 7 hours) (kp)90=3 (kp)180=4 Other Location(s) Impact: Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230228_172900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230228_172900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230228_172900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230228_172900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230228_172900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230228_172900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230228_172900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230228_172900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230228_172900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230228_172900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230228_172900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230228_172900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230228_172900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230228_172900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230228_172900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230228_172900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gifLead Time: 60.85 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Carina Alden (M2M Office) on 2023-02-28T19:09Z
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