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Prediction for CME (2023-03-10T17:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-03-10T17:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/24180/-1
CME Note: Wide CME visible in the SW of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. Source is a filament eruption stretching from S25W30 to N05W60 with liftoff starting around 2023-03-10T16:00Z. Source signature includes an EUV wave and dimming seen in SDO AIA 193 and opening field lines seen in SDO AIA 171. This eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUVI imagery. Possible arrival signature: Weak shock characterized by rise in magnetic field strength from 8.5 nT to 13 nT along with jump in wind speed from ~315 km/s to near 390 km/s with simultaneous pileup and increase in temperature. LASSOS team: a possible weak glancing blow from a CME with a shock-like structure but no magnetic obstacle.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-03-14T03:58Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-03-14T09:57Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 37.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.25 - 4.25
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:

This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME

Lead Time: 34.62 hour(s)
Difference: -5.98 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2023-03-12T17:21Z

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