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Prediction for CME (2023-03-10T17:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-03-10T17:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/24180/-1
CME Note: Wide CME visible in the SW of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. Source is a filament eruption stretching from S25W30 to N05W60 with liftoff starting around 2023-03-10T16:00Z. Source signature includes an EUV wave and dimming seen in SDO AIA 193 and opening field lines seen in SDO AIA 171. This eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUVI imagery. Possible arrival signature: Weak shock characterized by rise in magnetic field strength from 8.5 nT to 13 nT along with jump in wind speed from ~315 km/s to near 390 km/s with simultaneous pileup and increase in temperature. LASSOS team: a possible weak glancing blow from a CME with a shock-like structure but no magnetic obstacle.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-03-14T03:58Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-03-14T10:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
BoM ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.7
Grid: 256x30x90
Resolution: low
Ambient settings: 
Ejecta settings: 
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: 

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 11/0038UT
Radial velocity (km/s): 512
Longitude (deg): 41W
Latitude (deg): 30S
Half-angular width (deg): 40

Notes:

Lead Time: 76.53 hour(s)
Difference: -6.03 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) on 2023-03-10T23:26Z

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