CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2023-03-10T17:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-03-10T17:24Z
CME Note: Wide CME visible in the SW of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. Source is a filament eruption stretching from S25W30 to N05W60 with liftoff starting around 2023-03-10T16:00Z. Source signature includes an EUV wave and dimming seen in SDO AIA 193 and opening field lines seen in SDO AIA 171. This eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUVI imagery. Possible arrival signature: Weak shock characterized by rise in magnetic field strength from 8.5 nT to 13 nT along with jump in wind speed from ~315 km/s to near 390 km/s with simultaneous pileup and increase in temperature. LASSOS team: a possible weak glancing blow from a CME with a shock-like structure but no magnetic obstacle.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-03-14T03:58Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-03-14T08:42Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:
## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (OSIRIS-REx, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2023-03-11T13:49:18Z
## Message ID: 20230311-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.


## Summary:

C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. 

Start time of the event: 2023-03-10T17:24Z.

Estimated speed: ~515 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 46 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): 38/-30 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2023-03-10T17:24:00-CME-001

Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect OSIRIS-REx and STEREO A (glancing blow). The leading edge or flank of the CME will reach OSIRIS-REx at 2023-03-15T06:23Z and STEREO A at 2023-03-14T08:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). 

The simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2023-03-14T08:42Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-4 (below minor).
  
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2023-03-10T17:24:00-CME-001):

http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230311_004400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230311_004400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230311_004400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230311_004400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230311_004400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230311_004400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230311_004400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif


## Notes: 


SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s


Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer

Data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided "as is" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it "as is".

Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.

The terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.

NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Lead Time: 62.15 hour(s)
Difference: -4.73 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) on 2023-03-11T13:49Z
CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement