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Prediction for CME (2023-03-13T10:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-03-13T10:53Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/24214/-1
CME Note: CME seen to the NW in STEREO Ahead COR2 coronagraph associated with a filament eruption seen near N30E02 which erupts with significant deflection to the north and west as seen in SDO/GOES 304 imagery around 2023-03-13T09:54Z. Arrival signature notes: this arrival could alternatively be attributed to a predicted glancing blow from 2023-03-12T19:24Z CME, although this is less likely due to the earlier arrival at STEREO A. LASSOS discussion summary about this signature: this is likely a strong glancing blow from a CME, with a sheath and a shock-like structure.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-03-15T03:48Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-03-15T12:00Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 30.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2023-03-13T13:19Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 1334
Longitude (deg): 24
Latitude (deg): 27
Half-angular width (deg): 31

Notes: Missing or glancing impact expected, with material largely passing north of ecliptic.
Space weather advisor: Kirk Waite

Lead Time: 29.55 hour(s)
Difference: -8.20 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2023-03-13T22:15Z

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