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Prediction for CME (2023-03-13T10:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-03-13T10:53Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/24214/-1
CME Note: CME seen to the NW in STEREO Ahead COR2 coronagraph associated with a filament eruption seen near N30E02 which erupts with significant deflection to the north and west as seen in SDO/GOES 304 imagery around 2023-03-13T09:54Z. Arrival signature notes: this arrival could alternatively be attributed to a predicted glancing blow from 2023-03-12T19:24Z CME, although this is less likely due to the earlier arrival at STEREO A. LASSOS discussion summary about this signature: this is likely a strong glancing blow from a CME, with a sheath and a shock-like structure.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-03-15T03:48Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-03-15T12:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 6.0
Predicted Dst min. in nT: -100
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
BoM ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.7
Grid: 256x30x90
Resolution: low
Ambient settings: 
Ejecta settings: 
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: 

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:12:50
Radial velocity (km/s):1572
Longitude (deg):10
Latitude (deg):15
Half-angular width (deg):29

Notes: The associated CME is surprisingly mostly NW, with not that much expansion, but modelling shows that edge of this CME may arrive mid UT day 15-Mar. Considering the location the expectation was for more a semi-halo shaped CME. Due to modelled speed and the chance of a glancing blow, and that apparently filaments can have more stable Bz orientations which could be southward or northward I suppose went with a brief peak Kp of 6. Probably an over forecast.

Lead Time: 26.72 hour(s)
Difference: -8.20 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) on 2023-03-14T01:05Z

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