CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-03-13T10:53:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-03-13T10:53ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/24214/-1
CME Note: CME seen to the NW in STEREO Ahead COR2 coronagraph associated with a filament eruption seen near N30E02 which erupts with significant deflection to the north and west as seen in SDO/GOES 304 imagery around 2023-03-13T09:54Z. Arrival signature notes: this arrival could alternatively be attributed to a predicted glancing blow from 2023-03-12T19:24Z CME, although this is less likely due to the earlier arrival at STEREO A. LASSOS discussion summary about this signature: this is likely a strong glancing blow from a CME, with a sheath and a shock-like structure.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-03-15T03:48Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-03-16T06:38Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
************************************************************************************** % Compiled module: EAM ************************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 750.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v3 Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4] u_r = 452.850 Acceleration: 1.23075 Duration in seconds: 243945.14 Duration in days: 2.8234391 t2 is negative ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: 1.23 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 753.1 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 16/03/2023 Time: 06:38 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 16.70 hour(s)
Difference: -26.83 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (UoA) on 2023-03-14T11:06Z
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