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Prediction for CME (2023-03-17T10:58:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-03-17T10:58Z
iSWAS Layout URL:
CME Note: [PRELIMINARY] This CME overlaps the CME first seen in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2023-03-17T10:30Z to the SW. There are currently ongoing campaigns impacting the amount of available imagery for the SOHO LASCO C3 and STEREO A COR2 coronagraphs. The source of this CME is a large filament eruption seen in SDO/AIA 304 and GOES SUVI 304 starting around 2023-03-17T08:50Z with full lift off by 2023-03-17T12:17Z. The filament has it's largest mass centered around S40W30, but stretches between the longitudes of 0 degrees to 40 degrees and the latitudes of -20 degrees to -50 degrees. Possible minor arrival signature includes gradual increase of total magnetic field to over 11 nT with rotation of at least two magnetic field components, possibly indicating a CME arrival/glancing blow. It is likely embedded in a HSS. Waiting for assessment from LASSOS team.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-03-20T22:37Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-03-21T04:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 15.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
Event id="311"

From SIDC Ursigram Issued: 2023 Mar 20 1247 UTC

# (RWC Belgium)Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â  #
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 20 Mar 2023 until 22 Mar 2023)


The solar wind parameters over the next 24 hours are
expected to be slightly enhanced due to a forecasted mild high speed stream
arrival and a small chance for possible glancing blow arrivals related to
the UTC morning and evening filament eruptions in the south-west sector on
March 17th.
Lead Time: 11.27 hour(s)
Difference: -5.38 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2023-03-20T11:21Z
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