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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2023-03-17T10:58:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-03-17T10:58Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/24285/-1
CME Note: [PRELIMINARY] This CME overlaps the CME first seen in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2023-03-17T10:30Z to the SW. There are currently ongoing campaigns impacting the amount of available imagery for the SOHO LASCO C3 and STEREO A COR2 coronagraphs. The source of this CME is a large filament eruption seen in SDO/AIA 304 and GOES SUVI 304 starting around 2023-03-17T08:50Z with full lift off by 2023-03-17T12:17Z. The filament has it's largest mass centered around S40W30, but stretches between the longitudes of 0 degrees to 40 degrees and the latitudes of -20 degrees to -50 degrees. Possible minor arrival signature includes gradual increase of total magnetic field to over 11 nT with rotation of at least two magnetic field components, possibly indicating a CME arrival/glancing blow. It is likely embedded in a HSS. Waiting for assessment from LASSOS team.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-03-20T22:37Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-03-21T04:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 15.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.5
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:

This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME

Lead Time: 3.70 hour(s)
Difference: -5.38 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2023-03-20T18:55Z

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