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Prediction for CME (2023-03-17T10:58:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-03-17T10:58Z
CME Note: [PRELIMINARY] This CME overlaps the CME first seen in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2023-03-17T10:30Z to the SW. There are currently ongoing campaigns impacting the amount of available imagery for the SOHO LASCO C3 and STEREO A COR2 coronagraphs. The source of this CME is a large filament eruption seen in SDO/AIA 304 and GOES SUVI 304 starting around 2023-03-17T08:50Z with full lift off by 2023-03-17T12:17Z. The filament has it's largest mass centered around S40W30, but stretches between the longitudes of 0 degrees to 40 degrees and the latitudes of -20 degrees to -50 degrees. Possible minor arrival signature includes gradual increase of total magnetic field to over 11 nT with rotation of at least two magnetic field components, possibly indicating a CME arrival/glancing blow. It is likely embedded in a HSS. Waiting for assessment from LASSOS team.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-03-20T22:37Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-03-21T04:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:
Please enter the following information for your prediction:
SWPC ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.9e
Resolution: medium
Ambient settings: a8b1
Ejecta settings: d4t1x1
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: mrbqs

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:
Radial velocity (km/s):
Longitude (deg):
Latitude (deg):
Half-angular width (deg):

from Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2023 Mar 19 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction

Solar Activity

A CME associated with a filament eruption in the SW on 17 Mar (seen in
LASCO C2 imagery at ~17/1100 UTC) is expected to arrive late on 20
Mar/early on 21 Mar.


Near nominal solar wind environment is expected on 19 Mar. On 20-21 Mar,
the combination of a potential grazing from the 17 Mar CME and a
positive polarity CH HSS is expected to enhance solar wind conditions.
Lead Time: 72.93 hour(s)
Difference: -5.38 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2023-03-17T21:41Z
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