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Prediction for CME (2023-03-20T02:41:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-03-20T02:41Z
iSWAS Layout URL:
CME Note: Faint, wide CME to SW in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery during STEREO A data gap and campaign with limited imagery. Likely associated with a broad area of coronal restructuring, coronal dimming, destabilization, and filament eruptions seen in SDO 193, 304 starting ~2023-03-20T01:53Z between S10 to S30, W05 to W30. Arrival may be associated with CME 2023-03-20T14:42Z. From Tarik Mohammad, LASSOS: start of sheath is ~2023-03-23T05Z - enhancements in total magnetic field/density. Background solar wind is quite different from normal levels with higher density (normal density around 5/cc) and speed (normal speed around 350-400 km/s). This can be a reason there is no shock. Start of the magnetic flux rope ~13:30Z coincides with enhancement in total field and drop in density. 2023-03-24T06:50Z is the possible end time based on an increase in temperature beyond this point and the field components becoming less coherent.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-03-23T09:10Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-03-23T01:00Z (-6.0h, +9.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 40.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:
Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2023-03-20T08:10Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 602
Longitude (deg): W023
Latitude (deg): S32
Half-angular width (deg): 29 

Notes: Faint, and very difficult to fit given imagery problems. Likely weak impact but could arrive alongside CH86 CIR or HSS. Could be difficult to distinguish from other CME too.
Space weather advisor: Kirk Waite
Lead Time: 53.42 hour(s)
Difference: 8.17 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2023-03-21T03:45Z
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