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Prediction for CME (2023-03-20T14:42:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-03-20T14:42Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/24321/-1
CME Note: Bright, wide and asymmetrical shape CME seen to the NE in SOHO and STEREO A coronagraphs. The eruption is characterized by an erupting sigmoid/S-shaped structure centered around N27E20, though dimming and an EUV wave signature is limited to longitudes closer to 30-50 degrees east. On arrival signature from Tarik Salman, LASSOS: background solar wind is quite different from normal levels with higher density (normal density around 5/cc) and speed (normal speed around 350-400 km/s)-a possible reason for this ICME not to have an associated shock. The start of the magnetic flux rope likely coincides with the enhancement in the total field and drop in density and the end of it is around 2023-04-24T09Z (based on an increase in temperature beyond this point and the field components becoming less coherent)
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-03-23T09:10Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-03-23T08:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 20.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

Event id="312"

from SIDC Ursigram Issued: 2023 Mar 21 1301 UTC

A filament erupted in the north-east quadrant near NOAA AR 3258 around
13:00 UTC on March 20th and long duration C4.4-class flaring was produced
near N32E28 starting at 14:07 UTC. A resulting coronal mass ejection (CME)
was observed in the LASCO/C2 imagery around 15 UTC. The bulk of the CME is
far off the Sun-Earth line, but a glancing blow could reach Earth on March
23rd.

Lead Time: 41.45 hour(s)
Difference: 1.17 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2023-03-21T15:43Z

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