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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2023-04-01T00:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-04-01T00:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/24474/-1
CME Note: Faint CME seen in SOHO LASCO C2 and very faintly in C3, not seen in STEREO A COR2 b/c of a nighttime data gap. Source is likely a faint eruption of a filament stretching from AR 3267 near the STA-facing disk center to ~E55N20 and very roughly centered around S5E45, seen very faintly in AIA 193 and EUVI A 195 starting 2023-03-31T23:25Z .
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-04-03T02:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/24476/1
Model Inputs:
2023-04-01T00:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-45.0, Lat.=-1.0, Speed=454.0, HalfAngle=33.0, Time21.5=2023-04-01T08:01Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2023-04-03T02:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-04-03T21:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230401_080100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230401_080100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230401_080100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230401_080100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230401_080100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230401_080100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230401_080100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230401_080100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230401_080100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230401_080100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230401_080100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230401_080100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230401_080100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230401_080100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230401_080100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230401_080100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 25.10 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2023-04-02T00:54Z

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