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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2023-04-09T09:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-04-09T09:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/24568/-1
CME Note: Large bright CME seen to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2. The source appears to be associated with a filament eruption (best seen in SDO/AIA 304) followed by a large area of dimming (best seen in SDO/AIA 193 and 211) and post-eruptive arcade (SDO/AIA 171). The eruption looks like it could stretch across multiple longitudes (~50 to 90+).
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-04-13T08:00Z (-8.0h, +8.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE  from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)         #
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The partial halo CME, with the source region situate at the North-West quadrant of the Sun and rather close to the West solar limb, was observed in the morning of April 09. The CME was first observed in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at about 09:24 UT, it had angular width of about 180 degrees and velocity of about 500 km/s (as reported by the CACTUS software). The expected arrival of this CME at Earth is in the morning of April 13, with the possibly associated active to minor storm geomagnetic conditions.
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium                #
# Royal Observatory of Belgium                                       #
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Lead Time: 82.28 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M Office) on 2023-04-09T21:43Z

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