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Prediction for CME (2023-04-16T00:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-04-16T00:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/24651/-1
CME Note: Partial northern halo CME seen in SOHO LASCO C2 (very faintly in C3) and covered fully by the nighttime data gap in STEREO A COR2. One possible source is the long filament (or two parallel filaments) erupting between ARs 3277, 3273 and 3280 and stretching approximately from N30W20 to S09W55 as seen in AIA 193/304, EUVI A 195. Eruption starts at ~2023-04-15T22:30Z and is seen as dimming along the filament channel centered at ~N15W35 and more central dimming at N20W20. There are also post-eruptive arcades centered at N25W30.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-04-20T10:56Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/24655/1
Model Inputs:
2023-04-16T00:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=35.0, Lat.=5.0, Speed=465.0, HalfAngle=19.0, Time21.5=2023-04-16T07:21Z
2023-04-16T00:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=1.0, Lat.=15.0, Speed=317.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2023-04-16T11:59Z
Two-CME simulation includes a more Western 2023-04-16T00:24Z CME that is unlikely to have Earth impact but seems to merge with the 2023-04-16T00:36Z CME. Analysis is uncertain since the halo 2023-04-16T00:36Z CME is only seen in one coronagraph (SOHO) because of a nighttime data gap in STEREO. Half width used in analysis is the default half width. This uncertainty can affect the CME speed/arrival time significantly.

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2023-04-20T10:56Z (+- 7 hours)
Duration of disturbance (hr) =22.8 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.7
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-04-20T09:09Z
OSIRIS-REx with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-04-21T18:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230416_072100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230416_072100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230416_072100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230416_072100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230416_072100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230416_072100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230416_072100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230416_072100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230416_072100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230416_072100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230416_072100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230416_072100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230416_072100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230416_072100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230416_072100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230416_072100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 90.20 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2023-04-16T16:44Z

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