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Prediction for CME (2023-04-16T00:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-04-16T00:36Z
CME Note: Partial northern halo CME seen in SOHO LASCO C2 (very faintly in C3) and covered fully by the nighttime data gap in STEREO A COR2. One possible source is the long filament (or two parallel filaments) erupting between ARs 3277, 3273 and 3280 and stretching approximately from N30W20 to S09W55 as seen in AIA 193/304, EUVI A 195. Eruption starts at ~2023-04-15T22:30Z and is seen as dimming along the filament channel centered at ~N15W35 and more central dimming at N20W20. There are also post-eruptive arcades centered at N25W30.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-04-19T22:30Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 40.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
From SIDC URSIGRAM at 2023-04-17T12:31Z:

A filament erupted to the north-west of NOAA AR 3282 around 05:30 UTC on
April 17th. An associated coronal mass ejection (CME) is clearly visible in
the SDO/AIA 304 images. The CME is currently not detected in the available
coronagraph imagery. The bulk of the ejection appears directed to the
north-west, but a small Earth-directed component remains possible. Due to
lack of coronagraph imagery it is difficult to estimate the CME speed and a
possible glancing blow arrival time, but due to the nature of the CME any
expected impact is minimal. A glancing blow from the large filament
eruption in the northern hemisphere and related CME lift-off around 11:00
UTC on April 15th could be expected to reach Earth on April 19th. A
glancing blow from the CME related to a filament eruption around 23:30 UTC
on April 15 might arrive to Earth late on April 19th or early on April
20th. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the limited
available coronagraph imagery.
Lead Time: 57.55 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) on 2023-04-17T12:57Z
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