Prediction for CME (2023-04-16T00:36:00-CME-001)CME Observed Time: 2023-04-16T00:36Z
CME Note: Partial northern halo CME seen in SOHO LASCO C2 (very faintly in C3) and covered fully by the nighttime data gap in STEREO A COR2. One possible source is the long filament (or two parallel filaments) erupting between ARs 3277, 3273 and 3280 and stretching approximately from N30W20 to S09W55 as seen in AIA 193/304, EUVI A 195. Eruption starts at ~2023-04-15T22:30Z and is seen as dimming along the filament channel centered at ~N15W35 and more central dimming at N20W20. There are also post-eruptive arcades centered at N25W30.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-04-19T22:30Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 40.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
From SIDC URSIGRAM at 2023-04-17T12:31Z: A filament erupted to the north-west of NOAA AR 3282 around 05:30 UTC on April 17th. An associated coronal mass ejection (CME) is clearly visible in the SDO/AIA 304 images. The CME is currently not detected in the available coronagraph imagery. The bulk of the ejection appears directed to the north-west, but a small Earth-directed component remains possible. Due to lack of coronagraph imagery it is difficult to estimate the CME speed and a possible glancing blow arrival time, but due to the nature of the CME any expected impact is minimal. A glancing blow from the large filament eruption in the northern hemisphere and related CME lift-off around 11:00 UTC on April 15th could be expected to reach Earth on April 19th. A glancing blow from the CME related to a filament eruption around 23:30 UTC on April 15 might arrive to Earth late on April 19th or early on April 20th. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the limited available coronagraph imagery.Lead Time: 57.55 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) on 2023-04-17T12:57Z
Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME
model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before
performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival
Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with
the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting