Prediction for CME (2023-04-16T00:36:00-CME-001)CME Observed Time: 2023-04-16T00:36Z
CME Note: Partial northern halo CME seen in SOHO LASCO C2 (very faintly in C3) and covered fully by the nighttime data gap in STEREO A COR2. One possible source is the long filament (or two parallel filaments) erupting between ARs 3277, 3273 and 3280 and stretching approximately from N30W20 to S09W55 as seen in AIA 193/304, EUVI A 195. Eruption starts at ~2023-04-15T22:30Z and is seen as dimming along the filament channel centered at ~N15W35 and more central dimming at N20W20. There are also post-eruptive arcades centered at N25W30.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-04-20T13:00Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:
Met Office ENLIL settings. ENLIL version: 2.7 Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform) Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1 WSA version: 4.5 GONG: mrzqs Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop. Please specify following CME input parameters. Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 16/1343UTC Radial velocity (km/s): 350 Longitude (deg): 10W Latitude (deg): 08N Half-angular width (deg): 65 Notes: Fitted to C3, with no STEREO-A images available. Space weather advisor: Richard StoneLead Time: 68.08 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2023-04-17T16:55Z
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