CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-04-16T00:36:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-04-16T00:36ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/24651/-1
CME Note: Partial northern halo CME seen in SOHO LASCO C2 (very faintly in C3) and covered fully by the nighttime data gap in STEREO A COR2. One possible source is the long filament (or two parallel filaments) erupting between ARs 3277, 3273 and 3280 and stretching approximately from N30W20 to S09W55 as seen in AIA 193/304, EUVI A 195. Eruption starts at ~2023-04-15T22:30Z and is seen as dimming along the filament channel centered at ~N15W35 and more central dimming at N20W20. There are also post-eruptive arcades centered at N25W30.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-04-20T04:33Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:
https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/24675/1 Model Inputs: 2023-04-16T00:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=10.0, Lat.=12.0, Speed=338.0, HalfAngle=50.0, Time21.5=2023-04-16T11:32Z Model Output: Earth Impact: Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2023-04-20T04:33Z (+- 7 hours) Duration of disturbance (hr) =25.3 (+- 8 hours) Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.6 (kp)90=3 (kp)180=4 Other Location(s) Impact: STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-04-20T04:33Z Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230416_113200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230416_113200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230416_113200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230416_113200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230416_113200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230416_113200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230416_113200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230416_113200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230416_113200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230416_113200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230416_113200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230416_113200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230416_113200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230416_113200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230416_113200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230416_113200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gifLead Time: 59.12 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2023-04-17T17:26Z
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