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Prediction for CME (2023-04-21T18:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-04-21T18:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL:
CME Note: Halo CME visible in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is a filament eruption starting around 2023-04-21T17:30Z visible in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304, as well as STEREO A EUVI 195 and 304 imagery near the vicinity of Active Region 3283. An EUV wave is visible in SDO AIA 171 and 193 starting around 18:00Z, with an associated M1.7 flare peaking at 18:12Z. Post-eruptive dimming is visible in SDO AIA 193 starting around 18:15Z. Arrival of the shock of this CME at L1 is marked by an abrupt jump in total magnetic field to 27 nT and in solar wind speed from ~380 to over 500 km/s (with further increases to 34 nT and ~600 km/s respectively). There were several bouts of negative Bz, with the maximum negative value of -32 nT. The flux rope seems to arrive around 2023-04-24T01:19Z and is marked by smooth rotation of all three magnetic field components.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-04-23T17:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 8.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-04-23T20:35Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 6.0 - 8.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note:
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-04-21 21:09
 - Time at C2: 2023-04-21 18:12
 - Radial speed: 1204.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 43 deg
 - Eruption location: S13W19
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 767.20 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2023-04-23 20:35 (i.e. predicted transit time: 50.40 hours)
Lead Time: 42.42 hour(s)
Difference: -3.58 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2023-04-21T22:35Z
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