CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-04-21T18:12:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-04-21T18:12ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/24720/-1
CME Note: Halo CME visible in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is a filament eruption starting around 2023-04-21T17:30Z visible in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304, as well as STEREO A EUVI 195 and 304 imagery near the vicinity of Active Region 3283. An EUV wave is visible in SDO AIA 171 and 193 starting around 18:00Z, with an associated M1.7 flare peaking at 18:12Z. Post-eruptive dimming is visible in SDO AIA 193 starting around 18:15Z. Arrival of the shock of this CME at L1 is marked by an abrupt jump in total magnetic field to 27 nT and in solar wind speed from ~380 to over 500 km/s (with further increases to 34 nT and ~600 km/s respectively). There were several bouts of negative Bz, with the maximum negative value of -32 nT. The flux rope seems to arrive around 2023-04-24T01:19Z and is marked by smooth rotation of all three magnetic field components.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-04-23T17:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 8.0
Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-04-23T19:36Z (-8.6h, +16.1h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 100.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 8.0
Prediction Method: Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:
Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates. NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings: ENLIL version: 2.7 Resolution: low2 (256x30x90) Ambient settings: a3b1f WSA version: 2.2 (Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2) Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A. For 32 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach: - STEREO A between about 2023-04-23T10:06Z and 2023-04-24T08:18Z (average arrival 2023-04-23T18:01Z) for 100% of simulations. Additionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2023-04-23T10:51Z and 2023-04-24T11:38Z (average arrival 2023-04-23T19:36Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 58% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 5-7 range (minor to strong). Links to the ensemble details of the modeled event: https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-04-21_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX172/20230421_203700_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX172_anim_tim-den.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-04-21_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX172/20230421_203700_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX172_arrival_Earth.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-04-21_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX172/20230421_203700_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX172_Earth_stack.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-04-21_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX172/20230421_203700_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX172_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-04-21_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX172/20230421_203700_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX172_arrival_STA.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-04-21_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX172/20230421_203700_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX172_STA_stack.gif ## Notes: Ensemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest. Description of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided. For the full details of the modeled event, please go here: https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-04-21_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX172/Detailed_results_20230421_203700_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX172.txt ###Lead Time: 41.27 hour(s)
Difference: -2.60 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) on 2023-04-21T23:44Z
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