Prediction for CME (2023-04-24T14:12:00-CME-001)CME Observed Time: 2023-04-24T14:12Z
CME Note: This CME is visible to the south in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is a filament eruption centered around S35W25 starting around 2023-04-24T13:20Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. An EUV wave is visible at this time in SDO AIA 193, with post eruptive loops forming around 14:00Z. Post eruptive dimming is also visible shortly following the eruption.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-04-27T05:00Z (-12.0h, +9.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:
Met Office ENLIL settings. ENLIL version: 2.7 Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform) Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1 WSA version: 4.5 GONG: mrzqs Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop. Please specify following CME input parameters. Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2023-04-24T19:40Z Radial velocity (km/s): 700 Longitude (deg): 8W Latitude (deg): 38S Half-angular width (deg): 38 Notes: Possible glancing blow Space weather advisor: Rebecca SpaltonLead Time: 47.00 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2023-04-25T06:00Z
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