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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2023-04-24T14:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-04-24T14:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/24775/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the south in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is a filament eruption centered around S35W25 starting around 2023-04-24T13:20Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. An EUV wave is visible at this time in SDO AIA 193, with post eruptive loops forming around 14:00Z. Post eruptive dimming is also visible shortly following the eruption.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-04-27T05:00Z (-12.0h, +9.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2023-04-24T19:40Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 700
Longitude (deg): 8W
Latitude (deg): 38S
Half-angular width (deg): 38

Notes: Possible glancing blow
Space weather advisor: Rebecca Spalton

Lead Time: 47.00 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2023-04-25T06:00Z

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If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

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