Prediction for CME (2023-04-24T14:12:00-CME-001)CME Observed Time: 2023-04-24T14:12Z
CME Note: This CME is visible to the south in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is a filament eruption centered around S35W25 starting around 2023-04-24T13:20Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. An EUV wave is visible at this time in SDO AIA 193, with post eruptive loops forming around 14:00Z. Post eruptive dimming is also visible shortly following the eruption.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-04-27T06:19Z (-4.7h, +5.2h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 87.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:
Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates. NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings: ENLIL version: 2.7 Resolution: low2 (256x30x90) Ambient settings: a3b1f WSA version: 2.2 (Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2) ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI ) ## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (STEREO A, Missions Near Earth) ## ## Message Issue Date: 2023-04-25T12:40:28Z ## Message ID: 20230425-AL-001 ## ## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly. ## Summary: BETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. Ensemble modeling update on CME with ID 2023-04-24T14:12:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20230424-AL-002). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A. For 24 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach STEREO A between about 2023-04-26T21:23Z and 2023-04-27T05:54Z (average arrival 2023-04-27T02:16Z) for 83% of simulations. Additionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2023-04-27T01:06Z and 2023-04-27T11:02Z (average arrival 2023-04-27T06:19Z) for 87% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 97% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 4-6 range (below minor to moderate). Links to the ensemble details of the modeled event: https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-04-24_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX173/20230424_141200_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX173_anim_tim-den.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-04-24_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX173/20230424_141200_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX173_arrival_Earth.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-04-24_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX173/20230424_141200_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX173_Earth_stack.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-04-24_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX173/20230424_141200_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX173_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-04-24_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX173/20230424_141200_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX173_arrival_STA.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-04-24_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX173/20230424_141200_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX173_STA_stack.gif ## Notes: Ensemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest. Description of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided. For the full details of the modeled event, please go here: https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-04-24_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX173/Detailed_results_20230424_141200_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX173.txt Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer Data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided "as is" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it "as is". Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property. The terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law. NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.Lead Time: 57.42 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) on 2023-04-24T20:54Z
Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME
model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before
performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival
Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with
the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting