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Prediction for CME (2023-04-29T02:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-04-29T02:23Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/24842/-1
CME Note: Faint CME with what appears to be multiple fronts seen to the S/SW in STEREO A COR2 imagery and more generally to the South in SOHO LASCO C2 & C3 imagery. There is a fairly wide source region with associated brightening and dimming ranging from -20 to -40 degrees latitude and -10 to +30 degrees longitude starting around 01:30Z. This eruption encompasses AR13288. It is best seen in SDO/AIA 193, 304, and 211 as well as STEREO A EUVI 195.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-05-01T23:13Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 40.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

:Issued: 2023 Apr 29 1231 UTC
:Product: documentation at https://gcc02.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.sidc.be%2Fproducts%2Fmeu&data=05%7C01%7Ccarina.r.alden%40nasa.gov%7C3bf578d59c044071e81b08db48addf8e%7C7005d45845be48ae8140d43da96dd17b%7C0%7C0%7C638183683841033216%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000%7C%7C%7C&sdata=%2Fqxf1Ymc2hG0%2BCA1GddNCbNfSFNa7DL55cjodHd4TuM%3D&reserved=0
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 30429
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 29 Apr 2023, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 29 Apr 2023 until 01 May 2023) 
SOLAR FLARES  : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%) 
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4) 
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet 
PREDICTIONS FOR 29 Apr 2023  10CM FLUX: 159 / AP: 018 
PREDICTIONS FOR 30 Apr 2023  10CM FLUX: 155 / AP: 013 
PREDICTIONS FOR 01 May 2023  10CM FLUX: 150 / AP: 008
COMMENT: Solar flaring activity was low but frequent during the last 24 hours. Around 20 C-class flares were detected, with the brightest being a
C7 yesterday at 22:10 UT from NOAA Active Region (AR) 3288 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma-Delta, Catania group 67). The same AR also produced most of the flaring together with another member of the same group of AR, NOAA 3285 (magnetic configuration Beta, Catania group 65).  NOAA AR
3285 and 3288 are now in the process of merging together and C-class flare activity from those two AR is very likely, while M-class activity is still possible for the next 24 hours.

A partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) launched today at 01:36 UT can be seen in LASCO/C2 images. Although relatively narrow, it has a chance to become geo-effective either late 1 May or early 2 May. Another CME, launched today at 03:53 and seen in LASCO/C2 images, was ejected from the NE limb and is not expected to be geo-effective.

Lead Time: 61.78 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Carina Alden (M2M Office) on 2023-04-29T09:26Z

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