CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2023-04-30T01:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-04-30T01:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/24854/-1
CME Note: Bright CME visible in the NE of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery in SWPC_CAT. The source eruption starts around 2023-04-30T19:00Z in the vicinity of AR 3289 (approximately N20E25) and AR 3292 (approximately N15E30) and can be best seen as opening field lines, faint EUV wave, and some post eruptive arcades in SDO AIA 193. Opening field lines can also be seen on the limb in SDO AIA 171/193. The eruption is also visible in the NE of STEREO A EUV 195 imagery. Only based on field components due to suspect temperature/density data, ACE/DSCOVR may have observed a glancing blow of this CME starting around 2023-05-03T09:12. This corresponds to the start of an extended period of smooth field components but little rotation. A potential end of this CME can be 2023-05-05T06:05.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-05-03T09:12Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-05-03T20:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:

This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME

Lead Time: 62.93 hour(s)
Difference: -10.80 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2023-04-30T18:16Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement