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Prediction for CME (2023-05-04T09:09:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-05-04T09:09Z
iSWAS Layout URL:
CME Note: CME associated with an M3.9-class flare from Active Region 3296 seen to the northeast in SOHO and STEREO A coronagraphs comprised of a brighter bulk to the southeast and faint, wider shock with matching leading edge extending from the southeast to the northeast. A halo-like feature closely trailing behind this CME seen in COR2 running difference imagery may be associated with the eruption, but this is uncertain. A SOHO data gap exists over the CME propagation in the C2 FOV of view, obscuring analysis. Halo CME associated with M2.1 flare from AR13296 (N15E30). From LASSOS team discussion: Arrival on 5/7 is indicated by a sheath crossing and high field strength. No flux rope is observed in this signature. (There could even be 2 iCMEs in this signature, potentially merged). The other CME candidate for this arrival is 2023-05-04T09:09Z CME.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-05-07T13:20Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-05-06T22:17Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note:
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-05-04 13:04
 - Time at C2: 2023-05-04 09:09
 - Radial speed: 831.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 45 deg
 - Eruption location: N10E44
   - Associated flare: M3.9 (N17E43). Peak at 2023-05-04 08:05
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 639.68 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2023-05-06 22:17 (i.e. predicted transit time: 61.15 hours)
Lead Time: 65.42 hour(s)
Difference: 15.05 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2023-05-04T19:55Z
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