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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2023-05-05T08:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-05-05T08:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/24943/-1
CME Note: Halo CME associated with M2.1 flare from AR13296 (N15E30). From LASSOS team discussion: Arrival on 5/7 is indicated by a sheath crossing and high field strength. No flux rope is observed in this signature. (There could even be 2 iCMEs in this signature, potentially merged). Another candidate CME for this arrival could be 2023-05-04T09:09Z CME.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-05-07T13:20Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-05-07T16:22Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
 - Time at C2: 2023-05-05 08:12
 - Radial speed: 955.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 37 deg
 - Eruption location: N02E34
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 692.50 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2023-05-07 16:22 (i.e. predicted transit time: 56.18 hours)
Lead Time: 43.33 hour(s)
Difference: -3.03 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2023-05-05T18:00Z
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