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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2023-05-05T08:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-05-05T08:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/24943/-1
CME Note: Halo CME associated with M2.1 flare from AR13296 (N15E30). From LASSOS team discussion: Arrival on 5/7 is indicated by a sheath crossing and high field strength. No flux rope is observed in this signature. (There could even be 2 iCMEs in this signature, potentially merged). Another candidate CME for this arrival could be 2023-05-04T09:09Z CME.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-05-07T13:20Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-05-07T18:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2023-05-05T11:17Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 950
Longitude (deg): 07N
Latitude (deg): 010E
Half-angular width (deg): 42

Notes: Mostly shock from M2 flare of AR3296. Low confidence in speed as highly dependent on cone size. Low confidence with extent of material in CME. May catch up with CME from 04 May to arrive as one feature. 
Space weather advisor: Kirk Waite

Lead Time: 24.33 hour(s)
Difference: -4.67 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2023-05-06T13:00Z

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