CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2023-05-07T23:12:00-CME-001)

Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters.  This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model.  This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.

NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: low2 (256x30x90)
Ambient settings: a3b1f
WSA version: 2.2
(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)

## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2023-05-09T12:13:04Z
## Message ID: 20230509-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.


## Summary:

BETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS.  

Ensemble modeling update on CME with ID 2023-05-07T23:12:00-CME-001 (see previous notifications 20230508-AL-005 and 20230508-AL-007). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A. For 24 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:

- STEREO A between about 2023-05-09T15:35Z and 2023-05-09T21:42Z (average arrival 2023-05-09T18:24Z) for 100% of simulations.

Additionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2023-05-09T15:08Z and 2023-05-09T20:19Z (average arrival 2023-05-09T17:32Z) for 100% of simulations.  The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 91% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 5-7 range (minor to strong).

Links to the ensemble details of the modeled event:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-05-08_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX177/20230507_231200_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX177_anim_tim-den.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-05-08_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX177/20230507_231200_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX177_arrival_Earth.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-05-08_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX177/20230507_231200_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX177_Earth_stack.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-05-08_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX177/20230507_231200_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX177_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-05-08_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX177/20230507_231200_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX177_arrival_STA.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-05-08_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX177/20230507_231200_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX177_STA_stack.gif

## Notes:
This CME event (2023-05-07T23:12:00-CME-001) is also predicted to have an impact at OSIRIS-REx at 2023-05-10T10:44Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20230508-AL-007).

Ensemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.

Description of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.

For the full details of the modeled event, please go here:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-05-08_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX177/Detailed_results_20230507_231200_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX177.txt
###



Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer

Data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided "as is" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it "as is".

Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.

The terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.

NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement