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Prediction for CME (2023-05-07T23:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-05-07T23:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/25001/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible as a partial halo to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is likely an eruption and subsequent long duration M1.6 flare from AR 3296 starting around 2023-05-07T22:15Z in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. An opening of field lines is visible at the time of the eruption with post eruptive dimming and arcades visible starting around 23:45Z in SDO AIA 193 and STEREO A EUVI 195 imagery. The arrival signature at L1 is characterized by jumps in B_total to >15nT, solar wind speed to >550km/s, temperature >600K, and density >15 N(cm^-3). The CME might have arrived at STEREO A at 2023-05-09T19:00Z. From LASSOS team discussion: CME shock arrives on 6/9 and arrival signature ends ~2023-05-10T21:00Z. (It is possible that there are two close arrivals in this signature, with the second shock around 2023-05-10T05Z).
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-05-09T22:06Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.37

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-05-10T01:29Z
Prediction Method: SPM
Prediction Method Note:

Initial shock speed: 1494 km/s 
Solar wind speed: 400 km/s
Duration time: 3.0 hr

Lead Time: 6.83 hour(s)
Difference: -3.38 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) on 2023-05-09T15:16Z

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