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Prediction for CME (2023-05-07T23:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-05-07T23:12Z
CME Note: This CME is visible as a partial halo to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is likely an eruption and subsequent long duration M1.6 flare from AR 3296 starting around 2023-05-07T22:15Z in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. An opening of field lines is visible at the time of the eruption with post eruptive dimming and arcades visible starting around 23:45Z in SDO AIA 193 and STEREO A EUVI 195 imagery. The arrival signature at L1 is characterized by jumps in B_total to >15nT, solar wind speed to >550km/s, temperature >600K, and density >15 N(cm^-3). The CME might have arrived at STEREO A at 2023-05-09T19:00Z. From LASSOS team discussion: CME shock arrives on 6/9 and arrival signature ends ~2023-05-10T21:00Z. (It is possible that there are two close arrivals in this signature, with the second shock around 2023-05-10T05Z).
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-05-09T22:06Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.37

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-05-10T18:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 75.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE  from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)         #
A full halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was first observed in the LASCO/C2 chronograph imagery around 23:25 UTC on May 07. The CME was driven by a long-duration M1 flare from NOAA AR 3296 (beta), peak time 22:34 UTC, located near the central meridian close to the disc centre. The initial estimated plane of sky velocity of the CME is around 600 km/s and preliminary analysis suggests an estimated arrival at Earth on May 11, a full analysis is ongoing.
# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium                #
# Royal Observatory of Belgium                                       #
#                                                                    #
Lead Time: 13.50 hour(s)
Difference: -19.90 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) on 2023-05-09T08:36Z
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