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Prediction for CME (2023-05-09T19:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-05-09T19:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL:
CME Note: Large halo CME seen in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. Source is M4.2 flare from AR13296. Large EUV wave and dimming seen across the disk in SDO/AIA 193 and 171. ARRIVAL SIGNATURES at L1 and STEREO A, confirmed by LASSOS team as shock and iCME. -L1: 2023-05-12T05:48Z. Arrival signature is likely the CME shock arrival characterized by an abrupt jump of magnetic field to over 13 nT and of solar wind speed from 480 km/s to 560 km/s accompanied by the jump in ion temperature and density and some rotation of magnetic field components. -STEREO: 2023-05-12T01Z Arrival is signified by a sudden increase in Btotal to 13 nT, accompanied by an increase in solar wind speed to 900 km/s and an increase in ion density. No temperature data is available). The arrival at STEREO A is unexpectedly several hours before the CME arrival at L1.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-05-12T05:48Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.37

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-05-11T13:34Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 6.0 - 8.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note:
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-05-09 21:05
 - Time at C2: 2023-05-09 19:00
 - Radial speed: 1651.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 45 deg
 - Eruption location: N11W26
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 901.30 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2023-05-11 13:34 (i.e. predicted transit time: 42.57 hours)
Lead Time: 56.30 hour(s)
Difference: 16.23 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2023-05-09T21:30Z
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