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Prediction for CME (2023-05-07T23:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-05-07T23:12Z
CME Note: This CME is visible as a partial halo to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is likely an eruption and subsequent long duration M1.6 flare from AR 3296 starting around 2023-05-07T22:15Z in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. An opening of field lines is visible at the time of the eruption with post eruptive dimming and arcades visible starting around 23:45Z in SDO AIA 193 and STEREO A EUVI 195 imagery. The arrival signature at L1 is characterized by jumps in B_total to >15nT, solar wind speed to >550km/s, temperature >600K, and density >15 N(cm^-3). The CME might have arrived at STEREO A at 2023-05-09T19:00Z. From LASSOS team discussion: CME shock arrives on 6/9 and arrival signature ends ~2023-05-10T21:00Z. (It is possible that there are two close arrivals in this signature, with the second shock around 2023-05-10T05Z).
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-05-09T22:06Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.37

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-05-09T08:39Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
% Compiled module: EAM
Most pr. speed = 1494.0 km/sec
The EAM version you are running is: v2
u_r =      1575.85
Acceleration:      -5.57936
Duration in seconds:        444409.97
Duration in days:        5.1436339
Duration in seconds:        120476.97
Duration in days:        1.3944094
Acceleration of the CME:  -5.58 m/s^2
Velocity of the CME at 1 AU:  903.7 km/s
Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 09/05/2023 Time: 08:39 UT
Lead Time: 25.82 hour(s)
Difference: 13.45 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (UoA) on 2023-05-08T20:17Z
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