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Prediction for CME (2023-05-09T19:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-05-09T19:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/25050/-1
CME Note: Large halo CME seen in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. Source is M4.2 flare from AR13296. Large EUV wave and dimming seen across the disk in SDO/AIA 193 and 171. ARRIVAL SIGNATURES at L1 and STEREO A, confirmed by LASSOS team as shock and iCME. -L1: 2023-05-12T05:48Z. Arrival signature is likely the CME shock arrival characterized by an abrupt jump of magnetic field to over 13 nT and of solar wind speed from 480 km/s to 560 km/s accompanied by the jump in ion temperature and density and some rotation of magnetic field components. -STEREO: 2023-05-12T01Z Arrival is signified by a sudden increase in Btotal to 13 nT, accompanied by an increase in solar wind speed to 900 km/s and an increase in ion density. No temperature data is available). The arrival at STEREO A is unexpectedly several hours before the CME arrival at L1.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-05-12T05:48Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.37

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-05-11T15:47Z
Prediction Method: SPM2
Prediction Method Note:

Initial shock speed: 1651 km/s 
Source location: N11W26  
Solar wind speed: 500 km/s
Duration time: 0.83 hr

Lead Time: 37.07 hour(s)
Difference: 14.02 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) on 2023-05-10T16:44Z

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