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Prediction for CME (2023-05-22T14:09:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-05-22T14:09Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/25305/-1
CME Note: Faint CME seen to the southeast in coronagraph imagery that disappears before leaving the C2 field of view; it is associated with a M1.9-class flare, type II sweep, and erupting loop seen best in GOES 16/18 284 near S40E20.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-05-25T20:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 15.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

Message id="372", Event id="325"

From SIDC URSIGRAM 30523:
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 23 May 2023, 1237UT
SIDC FORECAST

...

Coronal mass ejections: A slow faint coronal mass ejection (CME) was first
observed in the LASCO/C2 chronograph imagery after 14:00 UTC on May 22nd.
The CME is related to the impulsive low M-class flaring from NOAA AR 3312
with an accompanying on disc dimming and a type II radio burst detected
around 13:40 UTC. The bulk of the CME is expected to miss Earth, but a weak
glancing blow could arrive late on May 25th. No other Earth-directed CMEs
have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Lead Time: 55.25 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2023-05-23T12:45Z

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