CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-05-17T16:36:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-05-17T16:36ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/25200/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is likely a filament eruption near AR 3309 and 3303 starting around 2023-05-17T15:10Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. Post eruptive loops are visible in SDO AIA 171 imagery and begin to form around 16:20. Additionally, post eruptive dimming is observed surrounding the eruption starting at 16:30Z. Arrival signature per discussion with the LASSOS team: Likely no iCME embedded in the HSS (the signature on the morning of 05-21 could be an iCME but is more likely the heliospheric plasma sheet embedded in the high speed stream continuing from 05-19.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 6.0
Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-05-21T23:30Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 20.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
Message id="371", Event id="324" From SIDC URSIGRAM 30519 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 19 May 2023, 1230UT SIDC FORECAST A glancing blow from the CMEs associated with a C4.3 flare (peaking at 15:30 UTC on May 17) from NOAA AR 3309 and a filament eruption around 16:00 UTC on May 17 might arrive to Earth on May 21.Lead Time: 51.47 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2023-05-19T20:02Z
CCMC
Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME
model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before
performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival
Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with
the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting
forecasters/researchers.
If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement