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Prediction for CME (2023-05-17T16:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-05-17T16:36Z
CME Note: This CME is visible to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is likely a filament eruption near AR 3309 and 3303 starting around 2023-05-17T15:10Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. Post eruptive loops are visible in SDO AIA 171 imagery and begin to form around 16:20. Additionally, post eruptive dimming is observed surrounding the eruption starting at 16:30Z. Arrival signature per discussion with the LASSOS team: Likely no iCME embedded in the HSS (the signature on the morning of 05-21 could be an iCME but is more likely the heliospheric plasma sheet embedded in the high speed stream continuing from 05-19.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 6.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-05-21T23:30Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 20.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
Message id="371", Event id="324"


A glancing blow from the CMEs associated with a C4.3 flare
(peaking at 15:30 UTC on May 17) from NOAA AR 3309 and a filament eruption
around 16:00 UTC on May 17 might arrive to Earth on May 21.
Lead Time: 51.47 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2023-05-19T20:02Z
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