CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-05-17T16:36:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-05-17T16:36ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/25200/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is likely a filament eruption near AR 3309 and 3303 starting around 2023-05-17T15:10Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. Post eruptive loops are visible in SDO AIA 171 imagery and begin to form around 16:20. Additionally, post eruptive dimming is observed surrounding the eruption starting at 16:30Z. Arrival signature per discussion with the LASSOS team: Likely no iCME embedded in the HSS (the signature on the morning of 05-21 could be an iCME but is more likely the heliospheric plasma sheet embedded in the high speed stream continuing from 05-19.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 6.0
Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-05-21T23:30Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 20.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CMELead Time: -37.83 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2023-05-23T13:20Z
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