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Prediction for CME (2023-05-30T17:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-05-30T17:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/25419/-1
CME Note: Faint, slow, loop-like CME seen to the west-northwest in SOHO C2, C3 and appearing slightly brighter in STEREO A COR2 in the same direction. The source is unclear, and thus simulation results are fairly speculative, but measurements indicate some confidence in an Earth-facing source on the Sun between longitudes 20 and 30 degrees. Possibly associated with brightening and dimming seen on the Earth-facing disk early on 2023-05-30 near N00W40, or with a minor eruption near the vicinity of AR3319 with westward deflection. Arrival signature: increase of magnetic field and rotation of components. From LASSOS discussion: there could be two CME arrivals in this signature - one late on 6/3, then another on 6/4 lasting into 6/6, with the interaction region between the two CMEs around 2023-06-04T19:30Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-06-03T21:05Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-06-04T07:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/25427/1
Model Inputs:
2023-05-30T17:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=27.0, Lat.=11.0, Speed=256.0, HalfAngle=41.0, Time21.5=2023-05-31T07:04Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2023-06-04T07:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:
OSIRIS-REx with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-06-06T03:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230531_070400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230531_070400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230531_070400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230531_070400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230531_070400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230531_070400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230531_070400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230531_070400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230531_070400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230531_070400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230531_070400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230531_070400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230531_070400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230531_070400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230531_070400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230531_070400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 74.55 hour(s)
Difference: -9.92 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) on 2023-05-31T18:32Z

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