CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-09-14T15:36:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-09-14T15:36ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/33434/-1
CME Note: Partial halo CME seen to the southeast in SOHO C2/C3 and not yet observed in STEREO A due to a data gap. Associated with a powerful X4.5-class solar flare from AR3825 (S18E55) and subsequent strong eruption, characterized by intense brightening in SDO 131 and fast ejecta seen best in GOES 284 as well as a large, fast EUV wave associated with the eruption traversing back towards the northwest seen best in SDO 171/193 that covers approximately half the solar disk. The arrival of this CME is characterized by a significant increase in B_total from ~9nT to ~15nT, eventually reaching 20 nT by 2024-09-17T01:35Z with simultaneous increases in solar wind temperature, density, and velocity, which reached a peak sustained velocity of 560 km/s. By 2024-09-17T01:39Z, the magnetic field components begin to stabilize with time with steady -Bx and -Bz components dominate the signature until 2024-09-17T12:00Z. There is evidence of a clear flux rope signature.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-09-16T22:49Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 7.67
Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-09-16T08:40Z (-5.52h, +5.19h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 95.0%
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:
Time of Launch: 2024/09/14 15:25Z Plane of Sky 1: 18:00Z; 31.5Rsun; ESE Direction Plane of Sky 2: 21:20Z; 31.5Rsun; WNW Direction POS Difference: 3:20 POS Midpoint: 19:40Z TOL/Midpoint Difference: 4:15 Numeric View/Impact Type: POS Difference Resulted Value: ~9.71 Travel Time: ~9.71 * 4:15 = 41:15 Predicted L1 Arrival: 2024-09-16T08:40Z Error Parameters: - POS Difference: 1 Hour - Travel Time Square Root: 50% Notes: Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 4/5 Method Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh Forecast Creation Time: 2024/09/14 18:47ZLead Time: 50.85 hour(s)
Difference: 14.15 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2024-09-14T19:58Z
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