CCMC CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2026-01-08T21:48:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2026-01-08T21:48ZDONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/43867/-1
CME Note: Very faint possible CME front visible only in difference imagery to the N/NW in SOHO LASCO C2. The source is believed to be a C3.4 class flare from AR 13443 (S14W04) with a very clear dimming structure and associated EUV wave heavily deflected to the N/NW as seen in SDO/AIA 193. This deflection may be due to coronal holes nearby.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-01-13T06:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:
https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/43872/1 Model Inputs: 2026-01-08T21:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=14.0, Lat.=18.0, Speed=286.0, HalfAngle=41.0, Time21.5=2026-01-09T09:45Z Model Output: Earth Impact: Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-01-13T06:00Z (+- 7 hours) (kp)90=3 (kp)180=4 Other Location(s) Impact: OSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-01-08T18:30Z Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-01-12T06:00Z STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-01-13T00:00Z Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260109_094500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260109_094500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260109_094500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260109_094500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260109_094500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260109_094500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260109_094500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260109_094500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260109_094500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260109_094500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260109_094500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260109_094500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260109_094500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260109_094500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260109_094500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260109_094500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gifLead Time: 83.00 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Carina Alden (M2M SWAO) on 2026-01-09T19:00Z
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