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Prediction for CME (2026-01-08T17:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-01-08T17:00Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/43839/-1
CME Note: Bright partial halo CME to the S and SE in SOHO LASCO and GOES CCOR-1 coronagraphs, fully covered by the daily data gap in STEREO A COR2. Its source is a massive, very complex filament eruption S and E of Active Region 14334 (S19E03), potentially involving two erupting filaments (one directly south of this active region and another more to the east. This eruption starts after ~2026-01-08T16Z to the SE of disk center and is associated with the long-duration C5.6 flare in this active region peaking at 2026-01-08T17:30Z. It is seen in SDO AIA 304/193 as bright, extensive post-eruptive arcades, a large-area dimming, faint EUV wave and erupting filaments seen in 304. Arrival at L1 (analyzed in discussion with LASSOS team): Significant shock signature characterized by a sudden jump in B total from 5 to 19nT, with Bz quickly reaching -18nT and then staying negative for four hours. Accompanied by a sharp increase in the solar wind speed from 450 to 620 km/s. There is also a sudden increase in ion density from 5 to 20 p/cc and a simultaneous, more gradual, increase in ion temperature from 35 K to over 500 K. After 2026-01-10T23:30Z the signature changes to what is likely an arrival of the flux rope, with smooth rotation of components and Bz turning northward for over four hours. B total increases from 7 to over 15 nT and density drops. It is possible that the initial shock signature incorporates a glancing blow from another CME.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-01-10T19:36Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-01-11T06:00Z (-8.0h, +8.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 70.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 
Radial velocity (km/s): 900
Longitude (deg): 023E
Latitude (deg): 35S
Half-angular width (deg): 35

Notes: More Earth-ward component of two relatively coincident CMEs. Glancing impact expected
Space weather advisor: Kirk Waite

Lead Time: 18.35 hour(s)
Difference: -10.40 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2026-01-10T01:15Z

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