CCMC CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2026-01-18T18:09:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2026-01-18T18:09ZDONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/44032/-1
CME Note: Halo CME first seen to the East by STEREO A COR2 beginning at 2026-01-18T18:09Z, as well as by GOES CCOR-1 as a halo in later frames. This CME was initially covered by a routine scheduled downlink data gap in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 which began at 2026-01-18T18:00Z but LASCO data became fully available later. The source of this CME is a long duration X1.9 flare from Active Region 14341 (S15E20), which peaked at 2026-01-18T18:09Z, with some possible contribution from Active Region 14345 (S16E27). This flare is visible in SDO AIA 94 and 131 and the associated eruption is seen as a wide region of dimming and field line opening in SDO AIA 193, 211 and GOES SUVI 284, as well as very high and large area post eruptive arcades seen in SDO AIA 94, 304 and 193. Ejecta is seen in SDO AIA 193 and in STEREO A EUV 304 imagery (southwardly directed off the SE limb as seen from STEREO A). STEREO A 195 also sees it as a large opening of field lines close to the limb, around the equator. Arrival at L1: Characterized by a sharp amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from ~6nT at 2026-01-19T18:55Z to ~86nT at 2026-01-19T18:59Z. The solar wind data is likely contaminated due to a known issue with the ACE spacecraft during solar energetic particle events, however solar wind data returns around 2026-01-19T21:18Z measuring ~1000 km/s. Density increased from ~3 p/cc at 2026-01-19T18:55Z to 29 p/cc at 2026-01-19T19:02Z. Temperature observed an increase from ~65,000 K at 2026-01-19T21:15Z to ~900,000 K at 2026-01-19T21:23Z. A large southern coronal hole which crossed the central meridian on 2026-01-15 was located to the south and west of the eruptive source for CME: 2026-01-18T18:09Z (S15E20), and while no distinct coronal high speed stream signature was identified within this arrival signature the location and size of the coronal hole may likely have influenced this CME as it traveled to and arrived at L1.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-01-19T18:55Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 8.67
Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-01-20T07:11Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 85.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 6.0 - 8.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
#--------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC # # (RWC Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 60119 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 19 Jan 2026, 1300UT SIDC FORECAST SOLAR FLARES : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4) SOLAR PROTONS : Proton event in progress (>10 MeV) PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Jan 2026 10CM FLUX: 152 / AP: 022 PREDICTIONS FOR 20 Jan 2026 10CM FLUX: 152 / AP: 057 PREDICTIONS FOR 21 Jan 2026 10CM FLUX: 152 / AP: 017 Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was high over the past 24 hours, with one X-class flare and two M-class flares observed. The largest event was an X1.9 flare (SIDC Flare 6678), peaking on 2026 Jan 18 at 18:09 UTC, produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 740 (NOAA AR 4341). Nearly simultaneously, a Type II radio emission began at 2026 Jan 18 17:59 UTC, indicating shock formation and supporting the presence of an associated coronal mass ejection (CME)... Coronal mass ejections: A full-halo coronal mass ejection (CME; angular width about 360 degrees) was detected in SOHO/LASCO C2 data on 2026 Jan 18 at 18:12 UTC. It is associated with the X1.9 flare (SIDC Flare 6678), peaking on 2026 Jan 18 at 18:09 UTC, produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 740 (NOAA AR 4341). Given the source location and the close association with the flare and the Type II emission, the CME is considered Earth-directed. The plane-of-sky speed is estimated at 1000 to 1500 km/s with an arrival expected later today or tomorrow. A more precise arrival-time estimate is currently being evaluated. Coronal holes: SIDC Coronal Hole 146 (a large trans equatorial coronal hole with a positive polarity) continues it's crossing of the central meridian. Solar wind: Over the past 24 hours, Earth remained under a high-speed stream linked to SIDC Coronal Hole 146, a large trans-equatorial coronal hole with positive polarity. Solar wind speeds reached about 770 km/s but showed a gradual decay, trending toward roughly 500 km/s to 600 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) stayed moderately enhanced, with the totla IMF (Bt) below about 9 nT, while IMF southward component (Bz) fluctuated between about -6.3 nT and +7.2 nT. The magnetic field orientation remained well connected to the positive sector, with the phi angle staying consistent with the positive polarity source, so solar wind speeds may remain elevated over the next 24 hours. Later today or tomorrow, a solar wind shock is expected with the arrival of SIDC CME 624, first detected as a full halo in SOHO/LASCO C2 on 2026 Jan 18 at 18:12 UTC and associated with the X1.9 flare (SIDC Flare 6678). Geomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly active in response to the high-speed stream, with NOAA Kp reaching 4 and the local K index in Belgium also reaching 4. Unsettled to active conditions are expected to continue in the coming hours. With the anticipated arrival of the fast CME and its associated shock, a geomagnetic storm is possible, with activity potentially rising to about Kp 7 to 8. ------- #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# An X1.9 long-duration flare was detected in the GOES-19 X-ray flux, peaking on 2026 Jan 18 at 18:09 UTC. The event is associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 740 (NOAA AR 4341; Long -30, Lat -11). Nearly simultaneously, a Type II radio emission was reported beginning at 2026 Jan 18 17:59 UTC, indicating shock formation and supporting the presence of an associated coronal mass ejection (CME). The CME was detected as a full halo in SOHO/LASCO C2 data on 2026 Jan 18 at 18:12 UTC; given its source location and its association with the flare and the Type II emission, the CME is considered likely Earth-directed. The plane-of-sky speed of this CME is estimated at 1000 to 1500 km/s. A proton event is also associated with this activity: the >10 MeV GOES proton flux has been above the 10 pfu threshold since 2026 Jan 18 at 22:50 UTC and is still increasing, with the 100 pfu level exceeded from 2026 Jan 19 at 04:40 UTC. Further M-class flaring can be expected from this region, with a chance ! of another X-class flare. #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # #Lead Time: 4.22 hour(s)
Difference: -12.27 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M SWAO) on 2026-01-19T14:42Z
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