CCMC CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2026-02-02T00:48:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2026-02-02T00:48ZDONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/44371/-1
CME Note: Complex CME consisting of multiple overlapping fronts the first of which is first seen to the NE by SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2026-02-02T00:48Z, as well as by GOES CCOR-1 in later frames. The start of this event is covered in STEREO A COR2 by a data gap which began at 2026-02-01T14:53Z and ended at 2026-02-02T03:23Z but after the data gap at least one lobe of this CME is seen to the ENE in STEREO A COR2 in multiple timestamps. The source of this event is an X8.1 flare from Active Region 14366 (N13E35) that peaked at 2026-02-01T23:57Z and possibly also the following X2.8 flare from the same AR peaking at 2026-02-02T00:36Z. The flares are visible in SDO AIA and GOES SUVI 131. Two bouts of filament ejecta are also seen in SDO AIA and GOES SUVI 304 in association with these flares, the earlier ejecta more northwardly directed and seemingly deflecting towards the west, and the ejecta after the second flare which is not as northward as the initial one. Arrival at L1: Characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 10nT at 2026-02-04T14:20Z to 22nT at 2026-02-04T14:24Z. Solar wind speeds increase from ~300 km/s at 2026-02-04T14:20Z to 400 km/s at 2026-02-04T14:25Z. A subsequent increase in temperature is observed from 36,000 K to 212,000 K, with an increase in density also observed around this time from 1 p/cc to 13 p/cc.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-02-04T14:20Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-02-05T06:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 75.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
#--------------------------------------------------------------------# # FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# A partial halo CME was observed at 00:48 UTC on February 2 by LASCO C2, associated with the X8.1 flare peaking at 23:57 UTC on February 1, and a large EUV wave. The CME has an angular width of about 150 degrees, with an Earth directed component. A preliminary speed derived from the available data is around 700 km/s, giving an expected arrival time on the second half of February 4 (this will be updated when more data becomes available and EUHFORIA simulations results are obtained). #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # ------ #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC # # (RWC Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 60202 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 02 Feb 2026, 1230UT SIDC FORECAST SOLAR FLARES : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 02 Feb 2026 10CM FLUX: 162 / AP: 007 PREDICTIONS FOR 03 Feb 2026 10CM FLUX: 164 / AP: 007 PREDICTIONS FOR 04 Feb 2026 10CM FLUX: 166 / AP: 035 Solar Active Regions and flaring: A total of 8 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. Solar flaring activity was very high over the past 24 hours, with 5 X-class flares and 16 M-class flares identified. They originated from SIDC Sunspot Group 784 (NOAA Active Region 4366), currently located at N13E34. It has a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration and was growing over the past 24 hours. The first X-class flare was an X1.0 one (SIDC Flare 6796) peaking on February 01 at 12:33 UTC. The second one and largest, was an X8.1 one (SIDC Flare 6808), peaked on February 01 at 23:57 UTC, two more followed shortly after (X1.5 at 00:22 UTC and X2.8 at 00:36 UTC, February 2). The last X-class flare occurred at 08:14 UTC on February 2, with a peak at X1.6. Solar flaring activity is expected to be high over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares very likely and more X-class flares possible. Coronal mass ejections: A partial halo CME was observed at 00:48 UTC on February 2 by LASCO C2, directed to the northeast, associated with the X8.1 flare peaking at 23:57 UTC on February 1, and a large EUV wave. The CME has an angular width of about 150 degrees, with an Earth directed component. A preliminary speed derived from the available data is around 700 km/s, giving an expected arrival time on the second half of February 4 (this will be updated when more data becomes available and EUHFORIA simulations results are obtained). There is still no coronagraph data corresponding to the last X-flare, so another associated CME cannot be discarded.Lead Time: 47.92 hour(s)
Difference: -15.67 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M SWAO) on 2026-02-02T14:25Z
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