CCMC CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2026-02-02T00:48:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2026-02-02T00:48ZDONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/44371/-1
CME Note: Complex CME consisting of multiple overlapping fronts the first of which is first seen to the NE by SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2026-02-02T00:48Z, as well as by GOES CCOR-1 in later frames. The start of this event is covered in STEREO A COR2 by a data gap which began at 2026-02-01T14:53Z and ended at 2026-02-02T03:23Z but after the data gap at least one lobe of this CME is seen to the ENE in STEREO A COR2 in multiple timestamps. The source of this event is an X8.1 flare from Active Region 14366 (N13E35) that peaked at 2026-02-01T23:57Z and possibly also the following X2.8 flare from the same AR peaking at 2026-02-02T00:36Z. The flares are visible in SDO AIA and GOES SUVI 131. Two bouts of filament ejecta are also seen in SDO AIA and GOES SUVI 304 in association with these flares, the earlier ejecta more northwardly directed and seemingly deflecting towards the west, and the ejecta after the second flare which is not as northward as the initial one. Arrival at L1: Characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 10nT at 2026-02-04T14:20Z to 22nT at 2026-02-04T14:24Z. Solar wind speeds increase from ~300 km/s at 2026-02-04T14:20Z to 400 km/s at 2026-02-04T14:25Z. A subsequent increase in temperature is observed from 36,000 K to 212,000 K, with an increase in density also observed around this time from 1 p/cc to 13 p/cc.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-02-04T14:20Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-02-05T12:00Z
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:
Please enter the following information for your prediction: SWPC ENLIL settings: ENLIL version: 2.9e Resolution: medium Ambient settings: a8b1 Ejecta settings: d4t1x1 WSA version: 2.2 GONG: mrbqs CME input parameters Time at 21.5Rs boundary: Radial velocity (km/s): Longitude (deg): Latitude (deg): Half-angular width (deg): Notes: Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2026 Feb 02 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at very high levels. Region 4366 (N14E28, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) continued to evolve in its growth phase as it increased in size, gained new spots and maintained a few spots of opposite polarity inside maturing asymmetric penumbra. AR 4366 produced nineteen M-class flares and four X-class flares during the reporting period. The most notable of the X-class events were an X8.1 flare at 01/2357 UTC, an X2.8 flare at 02/0036 UTC and an X1.6 flare at 02/0814 UTC. Additionally new spots were noted near S21E77, but remain unnumbered at this time due to classification uncertainty caused by limb foreshortening. A complex eruption resulting in possibly three CMEs was associated with the X8.1 and X2.8 event. The first CME front became visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery at approximately 02/0012 UTC followed by another at 02/0048 and the third at perhaps 02/0126 UTC, with the latter being difficult to discern due to degraded imagery. A STEREO-A COR2 gap was also occuring during this time, further compounding the uncertaintly of anlaysis. Initial modeling efforts of this event returned with possible glancing blows at Earth beginning to arrive by late on 05 May. We await further adequate coronagraph imagery to analyze the aformentioned later events....Lead Time: 53.42 hour(s)
Difference: -21.67 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M SWAO) on 2026-02-02T08:55Z
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